中国开源大模型增长追踪

中国开源大语言模型追踪 总年度经常性收入（ARR）为100-150亿美元，其中核心大语言模型收入（不包括字节跳动/Seedance）约为60-80亿美元。 增长惊人。以智谱为例（作为上市公司有更多数据），自3月以来ARR增长了6倍以上，而令牌使用量年初至今增长了超过40倍。 高质量数据不多，但增长似乎在近几个月加速，尤其是自6月以来。 重要的是，这种增长并非来自价格战。DeepSeek将价格提高了3-12倍，而使用量持续增长。智谱也讲述了类似的故事。 对海外收入的最佳估计已经约为20亿美元。 用例正在超越编码： $MiniMax的H3，在上进行后训练和加速，现在可以在约3秒内生成一个5秒的视频片段。 哔哩哔哩披露其AI视频收入翻了一番。 各公司的详细分析：

China Open-Source LLM Tracker US$10-15B of total ARR, of which core LLM revenue (excluding Byte / Seedance) is ~$6-8B. Growth has been phenomenal. Take Zhipu as an example (more data available as a public co.) ARR has grown 6x+ since March, while token usage is up >40x YTD. Not a ton of high quality data, but growth seems to have been accelerating in recent months, esp. since June. Importantly, this growth did NOT come from a price war. DeepSeek raised prices by 3-12x, while usage continued to grow. Zhipu tells a similar story. Best estimate for overseas revenue is already ~$2B. Use Cases Are Moving Beyond Coding: $MiniMax’s H3, post-trained and accelerated on , can now generate a 5-second video clip in ~3 seconds. Bilibili disclosed that its AI video revenue has doubled. Detailed analysis per co: